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- Are Mobility and COVID-19 Related? A Dynamic Analysis for Portuguese DistrictsPublication . Casa Nova, António; Ferreira, Paulo; Almeida, Dora; Dionísio, Andreia; Quintino, Derick
- From wars to waves: geopolitical risks and environmental investment behaviourPublication . Gabriel, Vítor; Dionísio, Andreia; Almeida, Dora; Ferreira, PauloThis study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on sustainable investments, focusing on five global environmental indices and two global GPR indices. Using Corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (cDCC-GARCH) model and Diebold and Yilmaz’s spillover analysis, we use daily data from January 2009 to October 2022, covering various market phases, including the European sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Results from the cDCC-GARCH model reveal high dynamic conditional correlations. During periods of high volatility, environmental indices displayed simultaneous and more intense responses, limiting investment diversification alternatives when considering only the environmental side. Diebold and Yilmaz’s static analysis demonstrates that environmental segments are more influenced by systemic shocks than specific causes, with GPR’s influence proving relatively weak. In the dynamic analysis, the spillover effects of GPR in environmental segments intensified during the pandemic crisis and the invasion of Ukraine, affecting market conditions.
- The use of transfer entropy to analyse the comovements of European Union stock markets: a dynamical analysis in times of crisesPublication . Ferreira, Paulo; Almeida, Dora; Dionísio, Andreia; Quintino, Derick; Aslam, FaheemUnderstanding the linkages among stock markets holds great importance for investors, policymakers and portfolio managers. When considering the integration of international stock markets and given they are complex systems, it is important to understand how they are related and how they influéncé each other. Studying data from 25 European Union stock market indices, this piece of research aims to evaluate the dynamics of influéncé among them. In terms of method, a non-linear approach has been applied, based on transfer entropy with static and dynamic analysis. As the main finding, a strongly influéntial relationship between some indices should be highlighted. The static analysis allows us to infer that central and western European Union countries are the main influéncérs, while the dynamic analysis leads us to the conclusion that the relationships between the stock markets have changed over time, revealing their dynamism. The results obtained have several implications. For instance, for investors and portfolio managers, the information about comovements is relevant for divérsification purposes and for their decisions on where to make their investments, build portfolio strategies and manage risks; however, for policymakers, the constant monitoring of stock markets may detect increases in the connection between markets, which could be understood as signs of instability.
- Uncertainty and Risk in the Cryptocurrency MarketPublication . Almeida, Dora; Dionísio, Andreia; Vieira, Isabel; Ferreira, PauloCryptocurrency investments are often perceived as uncertain and risky. In this study, we assessed if this is indeed the case, using a sample of seven cryptocurrencies and considered a period that encompassed the first real global shock in the life of these relatively new financial assets, the COVID-19 pandemic. Uncertainty was evaluated using Shannon’s symbolic entropy. To measure risk, we use value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. The results indicate that, except for Tether, the analyzed cryptocurrencies’ returns exhibited similar patterns of uncertainty and risk. Levels of uncertainty were close to the maximum values, but high uncertainty is not always associated with high risk. During the pandemic crisis, uncertainty increased while risk decreased, suggesting that the considered assets may have safe haven properties.