Loading...
5 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
- Sales forecast in an IT company using time seriesPublication . Sobreiro, Pedro; Martinho, Domingos; Pratas, AntonioThe sales forecast is fundamental for the planning of the activity of the companies providing, important indicators for the support of the decisions of the managers. This study aims to explore the potential of time series prediction algorithms in an IT company. The forecast was based on the company's billing data for 192 months of activity. The analysis of the data was based on the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining approach and for the treatment; we used the Anaconda IPython and Pandas. We developed the prediction with three models using R: Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The comparison of the performance of each of the methods shows that the model based on artificial neural networks has a greater accuracy in the prediction. These results need deepening the study to broaden the universe of the studied contexts. However, the simplicity in the application of the artificial neural networks model makes possible its use in computer applications without specific knowledge, giving a reliable instrument that allows the supporting decision-making by managers.
- BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE IN THE TOOL MANAGEMENT USED BY THE CUT AND CNC MACHINES OF THE ORNAMENTAL ROCKS INDUSTRYPublication . Martinho, Domingos; TERESO, MARCO; Sobreiro, Pedro; Pratas, AntonioIn the ornamental stone industry, improving production processes is a constant challenge for managers looking for solutions that improve the competitiveness of the companies. The management of cutting and computerized cut command machine tools is one of the areas where this improvement in management processes can have a positive effect on the competitiveness and productivity of companies. With this purpose, a model based on business intelligence methodologies was developed to systematize and automate the management process. The proposed model consists of the following layers: acquisition, extract, transform and load, storage and access and analysis. The acquisition layer consists of the interface with data available in various formats. The extract, transform and load process aims to extract data from these repositories and load them into a data warehouse. While the access and analysis phase is based on the use of software tools with graphical user interface with advanced analysis reporting features. The technology infrastructure is supported by the open source Tibco Jaspersoft Community Edition software package, which provides tools for the practical implementation of the defined model. With this work, it is hoped to implement the defined business intelligence model thus giving answers to the problems identified by providing information for the decision-making that corresponds to the needs of the managers.
- PREVISÃO DO TEMPO DE PERMANÊNCIA EM DOIS LARES DO DISTRITO DE SANTARÉMPublication . Sobreiro, Pedro; Martinho, Domingos; Pratas, Antonio; TERESO, MARCOA previsão do tempo de permanência por parte dos utentes de lares, baseada na análise dos dados existentes, constitui um indicador da maior importância para os gestores deste tipo de equipamentos ajudando-os a planear os recursos necessários. Neste estudo desenvolveu-se uma análise para determinar o tempo de permanência de um idoso num lar e quais são as variáveis que influenciam esse tempo de permanência. Os dados foram analisados tendo por base o modelo de regressão de Cox onde se verificou que as variáveis faturação acumulada, Idade e distância da residência ao lar têm impacto no tempo de permanência. Na aplicação do teste log-rank encontramos diferenças na sobrevivência nas variáveis faturação acumulada e idade. Os resultados obtidos podem ser úteis para avaliação do tempo que decorre até ao abandono e dessa forma permitir planear os recursos necessários para acompanhar os utentes dos lares.
- Predicting High-Value Customers in a Portuguese Wine CompanyPublication . Sobreiro, Pedro; Martinho, Domingos; Pratas, Antonio; Garcia-Alonso, Jose; Berrocal, JavierWine companies operate in a very competitive environment in which they must provide better-customised services and products to survive and gain advantage. The high customer turnover rate is a problem for these companies. This work aims to provide wine companies with new knowledge about customers that help to retain the existing ones. The study applies a collected dataset from a transaction database in a medium-sized ortuguese wine company to determinate: (1) customer lifetime value; (2) cluster customer value as output (customer loyalty). The measurement of the customer lifetime value (CLV) was analysed using the Pareto/NBD model and gamma-gamma model. Clustering techniques are employed to segment customers according to Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) values. Study findings show that exists three clusters with different interest to the marketing strategies, identifying the high-value customers, to target using marketing to increase their lifetime value effectively. The implications for the marketing strategy decisions is that using techniques based on the RFM model can make the most from data of customers and transactions databases and thus create sustainable advantages.
- Performance Evaluation of Information Systems in Portuguese MunicipalitiesPublication . Pratas, Antonio; Sobreiro, Pedro; Martinho, DomingosThe success of organizations increasingly depends on the performance of their information systems, and public bodies are no exception. If the service provided to all of us, as citizens, depends on this performance, then it is essential that we can evaluate it. This research evaluates the performance of information sys tems in the Portuguese municipalities, applying the DeLone and McLean model, which is based on the perceptions of the systems’ users. The research is based on a self-administered questionnaire to a representative sample of Portuguese munici palities employees. The six dimensions of the model were: system quality, infor mation quality, service quality, utilization, user satisfaction and impacts. A seventh dimension - demographics - and its relationship with the original model were also analyzed. The results show that DeLone and McLean model is suitable for the Por tuguese municipalities context, and it was concluded that the system quality and information quality dimensions have a major effect on user satisfaction and inten tion to use/use, respectively. It was also found that the user satisfaction dimension has a strong effect, and the intention to use/use dimension has a moderate effect on Impacts. These results provide relevant information for decision-making related to the evolution of information systems in Portuguese municipalities, showing the importance of investing in the systems quality and the quality of the information produced.