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Processo de tomada de decisão nas Forças Armadas
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo central analisar a forma como as tecnologias emergentes estão a afetar o processo de tomada de decisão nas Forças Armadas Portuguesas, com especial foco no nível tático e nas pequenas unidades operacionais. Num contexto de transformação tecnológica acelerada, marcado pela introdução de sistemas de combate inteligentes, inteligência artificial, veículos não tripulados e plataformas de comando e controlo digitalizadas, é crucial compreender como estas inovações estão a redefinir os modelos tradicionais de tomada de decisão e a cultura organizacional militar.
A presente investigação desenvolve-se em torno de três eixos principais: o estudo teórico dos modelos de decisão, a análise das tecnologias emergentes aplicadas ao setor da defesa, e a perceção prática dos militares portugueses sobre a influência destas tecnologias nas suas decisões operacionais.
Para este efeito, foi adotada uma metodologia qualitativa, que consistiu na realização de entrevistas semiestruturadas a doze oficiais dos três ramos das Forças Armadas Portuguesas, com funções em unidades operacionais e experiência no uso de tecnologias. A análise dos dados recolhidos foi complementada com recurso ao software IRaMuTeQ, que possibilitou uma leitura lexical robusta e estruturada.
Os resultados indicam que as tecnologias emergentes têm um impacto crescente no ciclo de decisão militar, contribuindo para uma maior rapidez, precisão, partilha de informação em tempo real e consciência situacional. No entanto, surgem também desafios significativos, como a necessidade de atualização doutrinária, formação contínua, interoperabilidade e clareza ética sobre os limites da autonomia dos sistemas. A discussão desenvolvida propõe um conjunto de implicações práticas para o treino, o planeamento e a formulação doutrinária nas Forças Armadas, reforçando a importância de uma abordagem crítica e estratégica à modernização tecnológica.
O presente estudo tem como objetivo contribuir para o debate nacional sobre a transformação das FFAA face à guerra tecnológica moderna, propondo uma reflexão fundamentada sobre o equilíbrio entre o potencial da máquina, as limitações humanas e a responsabilidade do decisor.
This dissertation aims to analyse the impact of emerging technologies on the decision-making process within the Portuguese Armed Forces (FFAA), focusing particularly on the tactical level and small operational units. In an era of rapid technological change, characterised by the adoption of intelligent combat systems, artificial intelligence, unmanned vehicles and digital command and control platforms, it is essential to grasp how these innovations are reshaping traditional decision-making models and military organisational culture. The research is structured around three pillars: a theoretical exploration of decision-making models, an analysis of the application of emerging technologies in the defence sector, and the perceptions of Portuguese military officers regarding the influence of these technologies on their operational decisions. A qualitative methodology based on semi-structured interviews with twelve officers from the three branches of the Armed Forces was adopted. All the officers had operational experience and exposure to emerging technologies. Data analysis was supported by IRaMuTeQ software, enabling robust, structured lexical interpretation. The findings suggest that emerging technologies are increasingly influencing the military decision-making cycle, leading to greater speed, accuracy, real-time information sharing and improved situational awareness. However, significant challenges also arise, including the need for doctrinal updates, continuous training, improved interoperability and ethical clarity regarding the limits of machine autonomy. The discussion presents a set of practical implications for training, operational planning and doctrinal development within the FFAA, emphasising the importance of taking a critical and strategic approach to technological modernisation. This study aims to contribute to the national debate on the transformation of the Armed Forces in the face of modern technological warfare, proposing an informed reflection on the balance between the potential of the machine, human limitations and the responsibility of the decision-maker.
This dissertation aims to analyse the impact of emerging technologies on the decision-making process within the Portuguese Armed Forces (FFAA), focusing particularly on the tactical level and small operational units. In an era of rapid technological change, characterised by the adoption of intelligent combat systems, artificial intelligence, unmanned vehicles and digital command and control platforms, it is essential to grasp how these innovations are reshaping traditional decision-making models and military organisational culture. The research is structured around three pillars: a theoretical exploration of decision-making models, an analysis of the application of emerging technologies in the defence sector, and the perceptions of Portuguese military officers regarding the influence of these technologies on their operational decisions. A qualitative methodology based on semi-structured interviews with twelve officers from the three branches of the Armed Forces was adopted. All the officers had operational experience and exposure to emerging technologies. Data analysis was supported by IRaMuTeQ software, enabling robust, structured lexical interpretation. The findings suggest that emerging technologies are increasingly influencing the military decision-making cycle, leading to greater speed, accuracy, real-time information sharing and improved situational awareness. However, significant challenges also arise, including the need for doctrinal updates, continuous training, improved interoperability and ethical clarity regarding the limits of machine autonomy. The discussion presents a set of practical implications for training, operational planning and doctrinal development within the FFAA, emphasising the importance of taking a critical and strategic approach to technological modernisation. This study aims to contribute to the national debate on the transformation of the Armed Forces in the face of modern technological warfare, proposing an informed reflection on the balance between the potential of the machine, human limitations and the responsibility of the decision-maker.
Description
Keywords
Tomada de Decisão Militar Tecnologias Emergentes Forças Armadas Portuguesas Modernização Tecnológica Ética autonomia de sistemas Military Decision-Making Emerging Technologies Portuguese Armed Forces Technological Modernization Ethics Systems Autonomy