Loading...
Publication
Avaliação de risco: métodos quantitativos aplicados a eventos de ordem pública
| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.58 MB | Adobe PDF |
Authors
Abstract(s)
A sociedade evoluíu do estado natureza para um sistema complexo, que assenta todas as suas atividades económicas e sociais na ordem e segurança públicas. Esta ordem, forma hoje a matriz dos atuais estados modernos de legalidade democrática.
Estabelecem-se novas configurações de pós-modernidade, resultantes de alterações céleres do tecido sócio-cultural, a que correspondem novos desafios de governance para a manutenção da ordem. Fluem novas derivações nos universos societários, movendo-se em ambientes virtuais da internet, que adicionam aos velhos paradigmas, novos desafios de segurança para crescentes padrões de incerteza.
Apesar de novas tendências de descentralização da segurança, a prossecução da ordem, continua a respeitar o princípio basilar do monopólio do uso da força por parte do Estado, exercido através do instrumento polícia.
Esta, articula-se em ambiente volúvel e incerto. Limitada pelos fundamentos constitucionais e pelo escrutínio contínuo dos próprios beneficiários. Deve por isso, fundamentar a sua atividade de manutenção e imposição da ordem, na prevenção e antecipação dos fenómenos disruptivos com a presunção de produzir a melhor resposta contingencial.
Para enfrentar eventos violentos de manifestação popular, aparatosos e sensacionalistas, também eles, cada vez mais, liderados e mobilizados através dos novos espaços virtuais de incerteza, exige-se o desenvolvimento crescente de técnicas de antecipação, com base na gestão do risco.
Estas, baseiam-se essencialmente em observações históricas, que processadas no presente, se projetam no futuro, traduzidos em aferidores de predicabilidade, que permitem aos decisores, algum controlo sobre o aleatório.
Os métodos de aferição do risco, são tão crescentemente aliciantes, quão preciso for o seu resultado, alcançando o seu pináculo com a devolução de resultados matematicamente quantificáveis.
The Society suffered evolution from a nature state to a complex system that based his entire economic and social activities in public order and security. This order, is nowadays the array of the current modern state based on democratic legality. Set up new configurations of postmodernity, in result of the fast changes in the socio-cultural establishment, which correspond to the new challenges of governance for the maintenance of order. Flow new leads in the corporate universe. Moving in the Internet virtual environments, adding to the old paradigms, the new security challenges, able to face increasing standards of uncertainty. Despite new trends in security decentralization, the order maintenance, continues respecting the fundamental principle of the monopoly of using the force in the hands of the state, achieved through its police instrument. Police, articulates itself in volatile and uncertain environment. limited by the constitutional guidelines and continuous scrutiny of the beneficiaries themselves. Must therefore, establish its activity of order maintenance, based in prevention and anticipation of disruptive events, with the presumption of producing the best contingency response. To confront violent incidents of popular demonstrations, usually ostentatious and sensationalist, they increasingly led and mobilized through the new virtual spaces of uncertainty as well, increasing development of advanced techniques, based on risk management, are required. These, are based essentially on historical data, that processed at present, focuses the future, meaning sealers predictability, that enables decision-makers, to have some control over random. The development of risk assessment methods is increasingly attractive, as much accurate is its results, reaching its pinnacle with the return of mathematically measurable results.
The Society suffered evolution from a nature state to a complex system that based his entire economic and social activities in public order and security. This order, is nowadays the array of the current modern state based on democratic legality. Set up new configurations of postmodernity, in result of the fast changes in the socio-cultural establishment, which correspond to the new challenges of governance for the maintenance of order. Flow new leads in the corporate universe. Moving in the Internet virtual environments, adding to the old paradigms, the new security challenges, able to face increasing standards of uncertainty. Despite new trends in security decentralization, the order maintenance, continues respecting the fundamental principle of the monopoly of using the force in the hands of the state, achieved through its police instrument. Police, articulates itself in volatile and uncertain environment. limited by the constitutional guidelines and continuous scrutiny of the beneficiaries themselves. Must therefore, establish its activity of order maintenance, based in prevention and anticipation of disruptive events, with the presumption of producing the best contingency response. To confront violent incidents of popular demonstrations, usually ostentatious and sensationalist, they increasingly led and mobilized through the new virtual spaces of uncertainty as well, increasing development of advanced techniques, based on risk management, are required. These, are based essentially on historical data, that processed at present, focuses the future, meaning sealers predictability, that enables decision-makers, to have some control over random. The development of risk assessment methods is increasingly attractive, as much accurate is its results, reaching its pinnacle with the return of mathematically measurable results.
Description
Keywords
Gestão do Risco Ameaça Probabilidade Ordem Pública