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Condução sob o efeito do álcool: modelo de risco de terreno para explorar e auxiliar no policiamento preditivo da 4.ª Divisão Policial do COMETLIS
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| 3.65 MB | Adobe PDF |
Authors
Abstract(s)
Prever onde um crime será cometido antes que aconteça é o sonho de qualquer Polícia.
Vários países utilizam sistemas computacionais de apoio à decisão que permitem a
identificação de padrões criminais e a criação de estratégias preditivas no combate à
desviância social. De modo a acompanhar o avanço tecnológico e a evolução societária, as
Forças de Segurança devem adotar novas formas de policiar. O consumo excessivo de álcool,
aceite e encorajado pela sociedade como forma de celebração e socialização, parece estar
intimamente relacionado com práticas delitivas, como o crime de condução de veículo em
estado de embriaguez. Diversos estudos alertam para os efeitos desta substância no ser
humano, corroborando a relação direta entre a frequência e a gravidade dos acidentes de
viação. Apesar dos esforços legislativos na prevenção e segurança rodoviária, a condução
sob o efeito do álcool continua a ser uma prática frequente entre os condutores. Aqui, assume
especial relevância a Polícia de Segurança Pública, cujo principal desafio é antecipar os
riscos e proteger a coletividade. A presente investigação, alicerçada nos princípios da
Criminologia Ambiental e do Policiamento Preditivo, debruça-se sobre a aplicação de um
Modelo de Risco de Terreno na 4.ª Divisão Policial do Comando Metropolitano de Lisboa.
Enquanto ferramenta preditiva, através do software Risk Terrain Modeling Diagnostics,
procura-se prever os locais com maior probabilidade de ocorrência do crime de condução de
veículo em estado de embriaguez. Os estabelecimentos de diversão noturna, restauração e
postos de combustível são identificados e selecionados como fatores de risco, totalizando
3.221 indicadores. Registam-se 47 áreas de intervenção prioritárias, 17 das quais
classificadas com grau excecionalmente elevado, e nove não intervencionadas. Sugere-se a
replicação deste método de investigação a outras Divisões Policiais e o alargamento a várias
tipologias criminais.
Predicting the local where a crime will be committed before it takes place, is the dream of any police officer. Several countries use computational decision support systems that allow the identification of criminal patterns and the creation of predictive strategies in combating social deviance. To keep up with technological advances and societal evolution, Security Forces must adopt new ways of policing. Excessive alcohol consumption, accepted and encouraged by society as a form of celebration and agreeableness, seems to be closely related to criminal practices, such as the crime of drunk driving. Several studies warn about the effects of this substance on human beings, corroborating the direct relationship between the frequency and seriousness of traffic accidents. Despite legislative efforts in road safety and prevention, driving under the influence of alcohol abide a frequent practice among drivers. Here, Police assume pivotal relevance, whose main challenge is to anticipate risks and protect the community. This research, based on the principles of Environmental Criminology and Predictive Policing, applies a Terrain Risk Model in the 4th Police Division of the Lisbon Metropolitan Command. As a predictive tool, the Risk Terrain Modeling Diagnostics software tries to predict the places with a higher probability of occurrence of the crime of drunk driving. Nightlife establishments, restaurants and petrol stations are identified and selected as risk factors, adding up to 3.221 indicators. There are 47 priority intervention areas, of which 17 have exceptionally high priority, and nine receive no police intervention. It is suggested to replicate this research method in other Police Divisions and extend it to several criminal typologies.
Predicting the local where a crime will be committed before it takes place, is the dream of any police officer. Several countries use computational decision support systems that allow the identification of criminal patterns and the creation of predictive strategies in combating social deviance. To keep up with technological advances and societal evolution, Security Forces must adopt new ways of policing. Excessive alcohol consumption, accepted and encouraged by society as a form of celebration and agreeableness, seems to be closely related to criminal practices, such as the crime of drunk driving. Several studies warn about the effects of this substance on human beings, corroborating the direct relationship between the frequency and seriousness of traffic accidents. Despite legislative efforts in road safety and prevention, driving under the influence of alcohol abide a frequent practice among drivers. Here, Police assume pivotal relevance, whose main challenge is to anticipate risks and protect the community. This research, based on the principles of Environmental Criminology and Predictive Policing, applies a Terrain Risk Model in the 4th Police Division of the Lisbon Metropolitan Command. As a predictive tool, the Risk Terrain Modeling Diagnostics software tries to predict the places with a higher probability of occurrence of the crime of drunk driving. Nightlife establishments, restaurants and petrol stations are identified and selected as risk factors, adding up to 3.221 indicators. There are 47 priority intervention areas, of which 17 have exceptionally high priority, and nine receive no police intervention. It is suggested to replicate this research method in other Police Divisions and extend it to several criminal typologies.
Description
Keywords
álcool modelo de risco de terreno operações de fiscalização de trânsito policiamento preditivo teoria dos factores de risco alcohol predictive policing risk terrain modeling theory of risk factors traffic enforcement operations