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Dinheiro digital: a correlação entre criptomoedas e índices financeiros
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Abstract(s)
A presente dissertação analisa a correlação das criptomoedas nos mercados financeiros tradicionais, avaliando empiricamente a relação entre os preços da Bitcoin (BTC) e do Ethereum (ETH) com os índices DAX e S&P500, bem como com o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) dos Estados Unidos. O estudo assenta numa revisão teórica sobre a evolução do dinheiro digital, o papel das criptomoedas nos sistemas monetários e o seu enquadramento enquanto ativos financeiros. Com recurso a métodos quantitativos, foram utilizados dados históricos provenientes de fontes financeiras reconhecidas, sendo aplicadas técnicas estatísticas como correlação de Pearson e regressões lineares simples e múltiplas.
Os resultados demonstram uma correlação forte entre a BTC e a ETH, e correlações moderadas entre estas criptomoedas e os índices DAX e S&P500, revelando que os criptoativos já não se comportam de forma totalmente independente face aos mercados tradicionais. No entanto, as relações com o PIB dos Estados Unidos são fracas ou estatisticamente menos significativas, sugerindo que as criptomoedas têm impacto financeiro mais imediato do que macroeconómico. Apesar desta crescente integração, a elevada volatilidade, a incerteza regulatória e os riscos associados ao mercado cripto continuam a ser fatores que dificultam a sua adoção plena no sistema financeiro global. Conclui-se que o dinheiro digital representa não apenas uma inovação tecnológica, mas uma transformação estrutural nos mecanismos de troca, investimento e política monetária, trazendo novas oportunidades e desafios para investidores, reguladores e economistas. O estudo contribui para o entendimento empírico da ligação entre criptomoedas e mercados tradicionais, reconhecendo, contudo, limitações relacionadas com o período de análise e a utilização de modelos estatísticos lineares.
This dissertation examines the influence of cryptocurrencies on traditional financial markets by empirically analysing the relationship between the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and the DAX and S&P500 indices, as well as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States. The study is supported by a theoretical review of the evolution of digital money, the role of cryptocurrencies within monetary systems, and their classification as financial assets. Using a quantitative approach, historical data were collected from reputable financial sources, and statistical techniques such as Pearson correlation and simple and multiple linear regressions were applied. The results reveal a strong correlation between BTC and ETH, and moderate correlations between these cryptocurrencies and the DAX and S&P500 indices, indicating that cryptoassets no longer operate entirely independently from traditional markets. However, the relationships with U.S. GDP are weak or statistically insignificant, suggesting that cryptocurrencies exert a more immediate financial impact rather than a direct macroeconomic influence. Despite this growing integration, high volatility, regulatory uncertainty and inherent market risks continue to limit their full adoption within the global financial system. It is concluded that digital money represents not only a technological innovation but also a structural transformation in exchange mechanisms, investment strategies and monetary policy, generating new opportunities and challenges for investors, regulators and economists. This study contributes to the empirical understanding of the interaction between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, while acknowledging limitations related to the period analysed and the use of linear statistical models.
This dissertation examines the influence of cryptocurrencies on traditional financial markets by empirically analysing the relationship between the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and the DAX and S&P500 indices, as well as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States. The study is supported by a theoretical review of the evolution of digital money, the role of cryptocurrencies within monetary systems, and their classification as financial assets. Using a quantitative approach, historical data were collected from reputable financial sources, and statistical techniques such as Pearson correlation and simple and multiple linear regressions were applied. The results reveal a strong correlation between BTC and ETH, and moderate correlations between these cryptocurrencies and the DAX and S&P500 indices, indicating that cryptoassets no longer operate entirely independently from traditional markets. However, the relationships with U.S. GDP are weak or statistically insignificant, suggesting that cryptocurrencies exert a more immediate financial impact rather than a direct macroeconomic influence. Despite this growing integration, high volatility, regulatory uncertainty and inherent market risks continue to limit their full adoption within the global financial system. It is concluded that digital money represents not only a technological innovation but also a structural transformation in exchange mechanisms, investment strategies and monetary policy, generating new opportunities and challenges for investors, regulators and economists. This study contributes to the empirical understanding of the interaction between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, while acknowledging limitations related to the period analysed and the use of linear statistical models.
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Keywords
Dinheiro digital Criptomoedas Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Mercados financeiros Digital money Cryptocurrencies Financial markets