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Geração de cenários e segurança interna: ensaio metacognitivo sobre o pensamento crítico
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Abstract(s)
A geração de cenários é um importante instrumento da inteligência, colocando à
disposição do decisor um variado e desafiante leque de possibilidades futuras que lhe
permitem direcionar o esforço intelectual na gestão dos meios. A construção das hipóteses
deve obedecer a uma metodologia que seja estruturada, racionável e plausível. Para além
disso, os cenários devem ser criativos, estimulantes e heterogéneos, dentro do espetro das
expectativas verosímeis. O pensamento crítico é o condimento indispensável para a
preparação da cenarização. Essa criticidade é exercitada e posta em prática através de
alguns procedimentos metacognitivos que permitem maior amplitude de raciocínio. Neste
trabalho foram ilustradas algumas condutas que ampliam as perspetivas para a formulação
de possibilidades: o autodiagnóstico, a obtenção de conhecimento, o tempero do rigor com
criatividade e a projeção de hipóteses desconfortáveis. São eixos mentais simples de
colocar em prática e que auxiliam o analista na elaboração de um bom produto de
inteligência. Cada um destes itens foi acompanhado por um trecho histórico, que ajudou a
validar a sua relevância através de uma observação empírica ilustrativa.
Generating scenarios is a vital intelligence tool, which provides the decision-maker with a varied and challenging range of future possibilities that allow him to direct the intellectual effort in managing the means. The construction of hypotheses must follow a methodology that is structured, rational, and plausible. Furthermore, scenarios must be creative, stimulating, and heterogeneous within the spectrum of verifiable expectations. Critical thinking is key for the preparation of the scenario. This criticality is exercised and practiced through metacognitive procedures allowing a greater breadth of reasoning. This work illustrates some conducts that broaden one's perspectives for the formulation of possibilities: self-diagnosis, the obtaining of knowledge, the tempering of rigor with creativity, and the projection of uncomfortable hypotheses. These are mental axes that are simple to put into practice and that assist the analyst in elaborating a good intelligence product. Each of these items was accompanied by a historical excerpt, which helped validate their relevance through an illustrative empirical observation.
Generating scenarios is a vital intelligence tool, which provides the decision-maker with a varied and challenging range of future possibilities that allow him to direct the intellectual effort in managing the means. The construction of hypotheses must follow a methodology that is structured, rational, and plausible. Furthermore, scenarios must be creative, stimulating, and heterogeneous within the spectrum of verifiable expectations. Critical thinking is key for the preparation of the scenario. This criticality is exercised and practiced through metacognitive procedures allowing a greater breadth of reasoning. This work illustrates some conducts that broaden one's perspectives for the formulation of possibilities: self-diagnosis, the obtaining of knowledge, the tempering of rigor with creativity, and the projection of uncomfortable hypotheses. These are mental axes that are simple to put into practice and that assist the analyst in elaborating a good intelligence product. Each of these items was accompanied by a historical excerpt, which helped validate their relevance through an illustrative empirical observation.
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Keywords
Geração, cenários, pensamento, crítico, inteligência, Generation, scenarios, thinking, critical, intelligence