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Publication
A sustentabilidade financeira dos municípios de média dimensão, no período 2014-2019
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| 3.88 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O presente trabalho teve, como principal objetivo, abordar, discutir e aprofundar a
questão da sustentabilidade financeira dos municípios de média dimensão no período
2014-2019, mediante a análise de indicadores financeiros e dos principais agregados
da receita e da despesa. Para tal recorreu-se à informação financeira e orçamental, de
base anual, publicada pela Direção Geral das Autarquias Locais, que depois de
expurgada dos dados desnecessários e devidamente trabalhada, constitui a base de
dados utilizada no trabalho.
No trabalho foram abordadas as principais políticas públicas municipais e ensaiado um
diagnóstico de sustentabilidade tendo por base, quer métricas já conhecidas e propostas
por vários autores, quer uma abordagem alternativa baseada nas receitas e despesas
de carácter certo e permanente, geradas localmente. Com base nesta última abordagem
propôs-se um Indicador de Sustentabilidade Intrínseca (ISI) que tem em conta apenas
as receitas e despesas recorrentes, geradas autonomamente no próprio território, e as
despesas certas e permanentes. Verificou-se que na maioria dos municípios, nos anos
considerados, o ISI assume valores negativos, o que indica claramente que a receita
recorrente gerada localmente é insuficiente para cobrir as despesas com caráter certo
e permanente.
Adicionalmente, com o objetivo de identificar variáveis que podem influenciar o valor do
ISI, recorreu-se a um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. As variáveis identificadas
com maior poder explicativo foram as transferências do Fundo de Equilíbrio Financeiro,
o valor da taxa de IMI, o Valor Acrescentado Bruto gerado no município e a dimensão
territorial.
The main objective of this work was to address, discuss and deepen the issue of financial sustainability of medium-sized municipalities in the period 2014-2019, through the analysis of financial indicators and the main aggregates of revenue and expenditure. For this purpose, annual financial and budget information was used, published by the General Directorate of Local Authorities, which, after being purged of unnecessary data and duly worked on, constitutes the database used in the work. In the work, the main municipal public policies were examined, and it was tested a diagnosis of sustainability based either on metrics already known and proposed by several authors, or on an alternative approach based on revenues and expenses of a certain and permanent nature, generated locally. Based on this last approach, an Intrinsic Sustainability Indicator (ISI) was proposed that only considers regular revenues and expenses, generated autonomously in the territory itself, and certain and permanent expenses. It was found that in most municipalities, in the years considered, the ISI assumes negative values, which clearly indicates that the regular revenue generated locally is insufficient to cover expenses with a certain and permanent character. Additionally, to identify variables that may influence the value of the ISI, it was used a multiple linear regression model. The variables identified with greater explanatory power were transfers from the Financial Equilibrium Fund, the value of the IMI rate, the Gross Value Added generated in the municipality and the municipality surface.
The main objective of this work was to address, discuss and deepen the issue of financial sustainability of medium-sized municipalities in the period 2014-2019, through the analysis of financial indicators and the main aggregates of revenue and expenditure. For this purpose, annual financial and budget information was used, published by the General Directorate of Local Authorities, which, after being purged of unnecessary data and duly worked on, constitutes the database used in the work. In the work, the main municipal public policies were examined, and it was tested a diagnosis of sustainability based either on metrics already known and proposed by several authors, or on an alternative approach based on revenues and expenses of a certain and permanent nature, generated locally. Based on this last approach, an Intrinsic Sustainability Indicator (ISI) was proposed that only considers regular revenues and expenses, generated autonomously in the territory itself, and certain and permanent expenses. It was found that in most municipalities, in the years considered, the ISI assumes negative values, which clearly indicates that the regular revenue generated locally is insufficient to cover expenses with a certain and permanent character. Additionally, to identify variables that may influence the value of the ISI, it was used a multiple linear regression model. The variables identified with greater explanatory power were transfers from the Financial Equilibrium Fund, the value of the IMI rate, the Gross Value Added generated in the municipality and the municipality surface.
Description
Keywords
Sustentabilidade financeira Municípios Políticas públicas Financial sustainability Municipalities Public policies