Negotiation as a key enabler in NATO Multi-Domain Operations involving non-military entities

Lopes, GMAR AN Xavier Santos

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/59775

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Authors

Lopes, GMAR AN Xavier Santos

Advisor(s)

Lopes, GMAR AN Xavier Santos

Abstract(s)

This dissertation explores how NATO can enhance its negotiation capability when engaging with non-military actors within the context of Multi-Domain Operations. In an era marked by increasing operational complexity and cross-sector interdependence, NATO's effectiveness relies not only on its military capabilities but also on its ability to coordinate, align, and negotiate with civilian partners. The central issue addressed is how NATO can negotiate, reconciling military requirements with the capacities and constraints of non-military suppliers. To investigate this problem, the dissertation applies the NATO Defence College Strategic Foresight methodology. This involves the identification and prioritization of trends and uncertainties, the construction of scenarios based on key drivers, and the application of a backcasting process to derive strategic actions. The findings emphasize that negotiation must be recognized as a core institutional function, necessitating doctrinal clarity, sustained stakeholder engagement, modular negotiation capabilities, and interoperable information systems. The scenario analysis illustrates how NATO's negotiation relevance is shaped by its adaptability to divergent geopolitical and institutional conditions. The backcasting results point to a set of actions that remain valid across future trajectories, including the development of a NATO-wide negotiation doctrine, the integration of civil-military liaison structures, and the institutionalization of early coordination mechanisms.