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Publication
Avaliação Económica de Diferentes Cenários na Produção de Leite de Ovinos na Região do Alentejo
| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
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| 1.56 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Numa época em que muitos jovens agricultores recorrem a incentivos e projetos de investimento, foi objetivo implementar a atividade leiteira na aldeia de São Brissos, contribuindo assim para o desenvolvimento económico e até social, da região. O presente trabalho de projeto tem como objetivo principal a criação de uma empresa no domínio dos ovinos de aptidão leiteira. Prevê-se a exploração de indivíduos de duas raças exóticas (Lacaune e Assaf) e o seu cruzamento. Planificaram-se todas as tarefas de maneio, de forma a obter-se rendimento proveniente da venda do leite e dos borregos ao longo do ano. Pretende-se igualmente, analisar a viabilidade económica e financeira da implementação deste projeto num período de 5 anos, aos preços praticados na atualidade, o qual identificámos como cenário real, e em outros dois distintos. Atualmente identificou-se um preço de 1,08€ por litro de leite, de acordo com o verificado no ano de 2020 no Instituto Nacional de Estatística, o qual se registou no cenário real. Num período analisado de 10 anos, o preço do leite registado em 2020 dizia respeito ao 2º preço mais elevado. Considerou-se um cenário otimista onde se registou um preço de venda do leite 5% acima do valor considerado para o cenário real, e ainda um valor de custos de produção 5% abaixo dos custos de produção praticados na atualidade. Em contrapartida, elaborou-se um cenário pessimista, que comparativamente com os valores do cenário real, o preço de venda do leite de ovelha registou uma diminuição de 5%, e os custos de produção foram incrementados em 5%. Os resultados obtidos não foram os melhores, uma vez que o projeto teve uma análise de 5 anos, e o indicador do período de recuperação registou como valor mais benéfico 5 anos. Já o VAL chega mesmo a apresentar valores negativos na perspetiva do projeto nos pós financiamento para todos os cenários, e a verdade é que não existe forma de investir sem recorrer a financiamento bancário. Por fim, a TIR em todos os cenários e óticas analisadas, apresenta valores superiores a 1%, sendo que na perspetiva do projeto no pós financiamento, é onde regista os valores mais baixos.
At a time when many young farmers resort to incentives and investment projects, it was the goal to implement dairy activity in the village of São Brissos, thus contributing to the region's economic and even social development. The main objective of this project work is to create a company in the field of dairy sheep. The exploration of two individuals exotics races (Lacaune and Assaf) and their crossing is foreseen. All management tasks were planned in order to obtain income from the sale of milk and lambs throughout the year. It is also intended to analyze the economic and financial feasibility of implementing this project in a period of 5 years, at current prices, which was identified as a real scenario, and in two other different ones.The current price arounds €1.08 per liter of milk, according to what was verified in 2020 at the National Institute of Statistics, which was recorded for the real scenario. In an analyzed period of 10 years, the price of milk recorded in 2020 was the 2nd highest price. An optimistic scenario was considered, where there was a sale price of milk 5% above the value considered for the real scenario, and a value of production costs 5% below the production costs practiced today. On the other hand, was prepared a pessimistic scenario, which compared to the values of the real scenario, the sales price of sheep's milk registered a decrease of 5%, and production costs increased by 5%.The results obtained weren´t the best, since the project had a 5-year analysis, and the recovery period indicator registered 5 years as the most beneficial value. About the NPV even presents negative values from the perspective of the project in the post financing for all scenarios, and the truth is there is no way of investing without resorting to bank financing. Finally, the IRR in all scenarios and perspectives analyzed, presents values greater than 1%, and from the perspective of the project in the post financing, it is where it registers the lowest values.
At a time when many young farmers resort to incentives and investment projects, it was the goal to implement dairy activity in the village of São Brissos, thus contributing to the region's economic and even social development. The main objective of this project work is to create a company in the field of dairy sheep. The exploration of two individuals exotics races (Lacaune and Assaf) and their crossing is foreseen. All management tasks were planned in order to obtain income from the sale of milk and lambs throughout the year. It is also intended to analyze the economic and financial feasibility of implementing this project in a period of 5 years, at current prices, which was identified as a real scenario, and in two other different ones.The current price arounds €1.08 per liter of milk, according to what was verified in 2020 at the National Institute of Statistics, which was recorded for the real scenario. In an analyzed period of 10 years, the price of milk recorded in 2020 was the 2nd highest price. An optimistic scenario was considered, where there was a sale price of milk 5% above the value considered for the real scenario, and a value of production costs 5% below the production costs practiced today. On the other hand, was prepared a pessimistic scenario, which compared to the values of the real scenario, the sales price of sheep's milk registered a decrease of 5%, and production costs increased by 5%.The results obtained weren´t the best, since the project had a 5-year analysis, and the recovery period indicator registered 5 years as the most beneficial value. About the NPV even presents negative values from the perspective of the project in the post financing for all scenarios, and the truth is there is no way of investing without resorting to bank financing. Finally, the IRR in all scenarios and perspectives analyzed, presents values greater than 1%, and from the perspective of the project in the post financing, it is where it registers the lowest values.
Description
Keywords
Ovinos de leite Investimento VAL TIR Período de recuperação