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Os fatores determinantes do endividamento dos municípios portugueses
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Esta dissertação tem como objetivo identificar quais são os fatores determinantes do endividamento dos municípios portugueses e a forma como esses fatores influenciam essa decisão. Assim, de forma a atingir o objetivo, procurou-se, numa primeira fase, analisar os contributos da literatura financeira sobre os determinantes do processo de decisão de financiamento dos municípios. Após a identificação desses contributos, que foram agrupados em três categorias – financeiros, socioeconómicos e políticos - formalizou-se um conjunto de hipóteses que especificam a relação desses fatores com a decisão de financiamento, bem como o sinal dessa relação. Estas hipóteses foram testadas através da estimação de um conjunto de modelos econométricos recorrendo à metodologia de dados em painel. Os dados foram obtidos através da base dados do Portal Autárquico, do Instituto Nacional de Estatística e da Comissão Nacional de Eleições, para o período de 2004 a 2010.
Os resultados dos modelos econométricos permitiram comprovar que todos os fatores financeiros propostos como determinantes da decisão de financiamento – receita fiscal, transferências, receita de capital, saldo corrente, despesas com pessoal e de investimento e nível de endividamento – influenciam essa decisão, de uma forma estatisticamente significativa. A nível financeiro, os municípios devem procurar uma gestão rigorosa da cobrança das receitas uma vez que a receita fiscal, as transferências e as receitas capital têm um efeito negativo sobre o nível endividamento. Por outro lado, as despesas com investimento, as despesas com pessoal e o endividamento desfasado têm um impacto positivo no nível de endividamento. Neste sentido, é importante os municípios adotarem uma política de gestão orçamental que procure equilibrar o orçamento corrente, uma vez que o saldo corrente positivo pode ser uma forma de diminuir o endividamento municipal.
Em relação aos fatores socioeconómicos, os resultados dos modelos econométricos também revelaram relações relevantes com o nível de endividamento. O rendimento das famílias (medido através do poder de compra) e o número populacional influenciam negativamente o endividamento enquanto o nível turístico tem o efeito contrário. A classe dimensional parece ser também um fator determinante da decisão de financiamento mas os resultados obtidos nos modelos econométricos não permitiram uma conclusão assertiva sobre esta relação.
No que concerne aos efeitos dos fatores políticos na gestão financeira municipal, os resultados indicam que os municípios governados por um partido com maioria têm maiores níveis de endividamento. Também em anos eleitorais o endividamento tende a aumentar. Os restantes fatores considerados (fragmentação do governo e a ideologia) não se apresentaram estatisticamente significativos como determinantes do endividamento líquido dos municípios portugueses.
The purpose of this dissertation is to identify which are the determinants of indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities and how these factors influence this decision. To achieve the proposed goal, on a first stage, it was analyzed the contributions of financial literature on the determinants of the decision process of financing municipalities. Having identified these contributions, which were grouped into three categories - financial, social economic and political – it was formalized a set of hypotheses that specify the relationship between these factors and financing decision, as well as the sign of this relationship. These hypotheses were tested by estimating a set of econometric models using the panel data methodology. The data were obtained from the database of the Portal Autárquico, the National Institute of Statistics and the National Electoral Commission website for the period 2004-2010. The results of the econometric models proved that all the proposed financial factors as determinants of the financing decision - tax revenue, transfers, capital revenue, current budget, personnel expenses and investment, and indebtedness level - affect this decision in a statistically significant way. Financially, the municipalities must have a rigorous management policy of the revenue as the tax revenue, transfers, and capital revenues have a negative impact on the indebtedness level. On the other hand, the investment expenditure, staff expenditure and the lagged indebtedness have a positive impact on the indebtedness. Therefore, it is important for the municipalities to adopt a budget management policy that seeks to balance the current budget since the positive current balance can be a way to reduce the municipal indebtedness. In relation to the socioeconomic factors, the results of the econometric models also revealed significant relationships with the level of indebtedness. The purchasing power of households and population numbers negatively influence the indebtedness while the touristic level has the opposite effect. The dimensional class also seems to be a determining factor of financing decision but the results from the econometric models have not allowed an assertive conclusion about this relationship. Looking at the effect of the political factors on the municipal financial management, the results indicate that the municipalities governed by a party with a majority have higher levels of indebtedness. Also in the years of election, the indebtedness increases. The remaining considered factors (fragmentation of government and ideology) were not statistically significant as determinants the liquid indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities.
The purpose of this dissertation is to identify which are the determinants of indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities and how these factors influence this decision. To achieve the proposed goal, on a first stage, it was analyzed the contributions of financial literature on the determinants of the decision process of financing municipalities. Having identified these contributions, which were grouped into three categories - financial, social economic and political – it was formalized a set of hypotheses that specify the relationship between these factors and financing decision, as well as the sign of this relationship. These hypotheses were tested by estimating a set of econometric models using the panel data methodology. The data were obtained from the database of the Portal Autárquico, the National Institute of Statistics and the National Electoral Commission website for the period 2004-2010. The results of the econometric models proved that all the proposed financial factors as determinants of the financing decision - tax revenue, transfers, capital revenue, current budget, personnel expenses and investment, and indebtedness level - affect this decision in a statistically significant way. Financially, the municipalities must have a rigorous management policy of the revenue as the tax revenue, transfers, and capital revenues have a negative impact on the indebtedness level. On the other hand, the investment expenditure, staff expenditure and the lagged indebtedness have a positive impact on the indebtedness. Therefore, it is important for the municipalities to adopt a budget management policy that seeks to balance the current budget since the positive current balance can be a way to reduce the municipal indebtedness. In relation to the socioeconomic factors, the results of the econometric models also revealed significant relationships with the level of indebtedness. The purchasing power of households and population numbers negatively influence the indebtedness while the touristic level has the opposite effect. The dimensional class also seems to be a determining factor of financing decision but the results from the econometric models have not allowed an assertive conclusion about this relationship. Looking at the effect of the political factors on the municipal financial management, the results indicate that the municipalities governed by a party with a majority have higher levels of indebtedness. Also in the years of election, the indebtedness increases. The remaining considered factors (fragmentation of government and ideology) were not statistically significant as determinants the liquid indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities.
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Contabilidade e Finanças
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Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais