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MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention

dc.contributor.authorSantos, Luis
dc.contributor.authorVasco Lopes
dc.contributor.authorBaptista, Cecília
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-09T14:04:49Z
dc.date.available2022-03-09T14:04:49Z
dc.date.issued2022-03-03
dc.date.updated2022-03-04T20:51:50Z
dc.description.abstractCountries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climate-change reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipWe would like to thank the Tomar Center for Nature Protection and the Republican National Guard for granting access to the fire ignition data and for the precious territorial and fire ignition-related knowledge shared.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/f13030408pt_PT
dc.identifier.slugcv-prod-2850184
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/39666
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/3/408pt_PT
dc.subjectfire ignitionpt_PT
dc.subjectfire hazardpt_PT
dc.subjectQGISpt_PT
dc.subjectInVESTpt_PT
dc.subjectNDVIpt_PT
dc.subjectS2 NDWIpt_PT
dc.subjectriskpt_PT
dc.titleMDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Preventionpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage18pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleForestspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume13pt_PT
person.familyNameSantos
person.familyNamede Melo Correia Baptista
person.givenNameLuis
person.givenNameCecília
person.identifier.ciencia-id031C-78F9-EC97
person.identifier.ciencia-id5210-7F4F-5F4D
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1006-4131
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4664-6766
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57197801607
person.identifier.scopus-author-id36779562200
rcaap.cv.cienciaid031C-78F9-EC97 | Luís Filipe Neves Carreira dos Santos
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationbc5b2890-a4c5-4dd7-a8fd-d6b8282e806c
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationbf47b097-76d9-43ed-8ef5-199fd69e4d8d
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverybc5b2890-a4c5-4dd7-a8fd-d6b8282e806c

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