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Publication
Alterações climáticas e culturas lenhosas no Alentejo Central - uma abordagem à escala do território.
| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
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| 3.64 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O estudo realizado procurou averiguar o impacto das alterações climáticas sobre
as condições futuras de viabilidade produtiva de 6 espécies/culturas lenhosas importantes
na região do Alentejo Central: oliveira, pinheiro manso, sobreiro, azinheira, videira e
eucalipto. A análise é feita através da aplicação de uma análise multicritério com recurso
a ferramentas SIG (QGIS) e tem como base de trabalho dois cenários climáticos (SSP1-
2.6; SSP2-4.5) em dois períodos distintos (2041-2060; 2081-2100). Foram consideradas
diversas variáveis bioclimáticas previamente modeladas e foi feito o cruzamento destas
com um envelope climático definido para cada espécie. Para a avaliação da evolução da
viabilidade das espécies foram definidas 9 áreas, na região do Alentejo Central, que
possam servir como base futura de planeamento. As áreas definidas procuram refletir
afinidades paisagísticas e produtivas. A avaliação dos resultados permitiu identificar que
todos os territórios sofrerão alterações que afetarão de forma distinta as diferentes
espécies, prevê-se que venham a existir fortes perturbações em algumas áreas onde o
nível de especialização é mais elevado. Verifica-se que algumas espécies poderão mesmo
perder totalmente as condições de viabilidade na região (eucalipto e pinheiro manso) e
que o sobreiro poderá deixar de ter condições ideais em toda a região. Aponta-se uma
previsível retração da vinha em algumas das sub-regiões vitivinícolas. A oliveira e a
azinheira sofrerão menos impactos regionais, mas também se preveem problemas
localizados, nomeadamente no Sudeste da região onde as temperaturas subirão de forma
mais acentuada e as precipitações cairão para níveis críticos para todas as espécies.
Anteveem-se também riscos a nível ecológico, económico e social da perda de viabilidade
produtiva destas culturas em determinadas áreas ou na totalidade do território estudado.
The study sought to investigate the impact of climate change on the future conditions of productive viability of 6 important woody species/crops in the Central Alentejo region: olive, stone pine, cork oak, holm oak, vine and eucalyptus. The analysis is carried out through the application of a multi-criteria analysis using GIS tools (QGIS) and is based on two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5) in two different periods (2041-2060; 2081- 2100). Several previously modeled bioclimatic variables were considered, and these were crossed with a defined climatic envelope for each species. Furthermore, 9 zones were defined in the Central Alentejo region to assess the evolution of species viability. This zoning could serve as a future planning basis. The defined zones seek to reflect landscape and production affinities. The evaluation of the results made it possible to identify that all territories will undergo changes that will affect different species differently, it is expected that there will be strong disturbances in some areas where the level of specialization is higher. It appears that some species may even completely lose their viability conditions in the region (eucalyptus and stone pine) and that the cork oak may no longer have ideal conditions throughout the region. There is a predictable decline in vineyards in some of the wine-growing sub-regions. Olive trees and holm oaks will suffer fewer regional impacts, but localized problems are also expected, particularly in the Southeast of the region where temperatures will rise more sharply and rainfall will fall to critical levels for all species. Ecological, economic and social risks are also foreseen in the loss of productive viability of these crops in certain areas or in the entire studied territory.
The study sought to investigate the impact of climate change on the future conditions of productive viability of 6 important woody species/crops in the Central Alentejo region: olive, stone pine, cork oak, holm oak, vine and eucalyptus. The analysis is carried out through the application of a multi-criteria analysis using GIS tools (QGIS) and is based on two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5) in two different periods (2041-2060; 2081- 2100). Several previously modeled bioclimatic variables were considered, and these were crossed with a defined climatic envelope for each species. Furthermore, 9 zones were defined in the Central Alentejo region to assess the evolution of species viability. This zoning could serve as a future planning basis. The defined zones seek to reflect landscape and production affinities. The evaluation of the results made it possible to identify that all territories will undergo changes that will affect different species differently, it is expected that there will be strong disturbances in some areas where the level of specialization is higher. It appears that some species may even completely lose their viability conditions in the region (eucalyptus and stone pine) and that the cork oak may no longer have ideal conditions throughout the region. There is a predictable decline in vineyards in some of the wine-growing sub-regions. Olive trees and holm oaks will suffer fewer regional impacts, but localized problems are also expected, particularly in the Southeast of the region where temperatures will rise more sharply and rainfall will fall to critical levels for all species. Ecological, economic and social risks are also foreseen in the loss of productive viability of these crops in certain areas or in the entire studied territory.
Description
Keywords
Alentejo Mudança Climática variáveis bioclimáticas análise multicritério zonagem biofísica multi-criteria analysis climate change bioclimatic variables biophysical zoning