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Damp trend Grey Model forecasting method for airline industry
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
This paper presents a modification of the Grey Model (GM) to forecast routes passenger dema nd growth
in the air transportation industry. Forecast methods like Holt-Winters, autoreg ressive models, exponential
smoothing, neural network, fuzzy logic, GM model calculate very high airlines routes pax growth. For
this reason, a modification has been done to the GM model to damp trend calculations as time grows. The
simulation results show that the modified GM model reduces the model exponential estimations grow. It
allows the GM model to forecast reasonable routes passenger demand for long lead-tim es forecasts. It
makes this model an option to calculate airlines routes pax flow when few data points are availabl e.
The United States domestic air transport market data are used to compare the performance of the GM
model wit h the proposed model.
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Citation
Carmona Benítez, R. B., Carmona Paredes, R. B., Lodewijks, G. & Nabais, G. (2013). Damp trend Grey Model forecasting method for airline industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(12), pp.4915-4921.