Browsing by Author "Ali, Haider"
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- Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Intraday Efficiency of Agricultural Futures MarketsPublication . Aslam, Faheem; Ferreira, Paulo; Ali, HaiderThe investigation of the fractal nature of financial data has been growing in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the efficiency of agricultural futures markets by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). To better understand the relative changes in the efficiency of agriculture commodities due to the pandemic, we split the dataset into two equal periods of seven months, i.e., 1 August 2019 to 10 March 2020 and 11 March 2020 to 25 September 2020. We used the high-frequency data at 15 min intervals of cocoa, cotton, coffee, orange juice, soybean, and sugar. The findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic has great but varying impacts on the intraday multifractal properties of the selected agricultural future markets. In particular, the London sugar witnessed the lowest multifractality while orange juice exhibited the highest multifractality before the pandemic declaration. Cocoa became the most efficient while the cotton exhibited the minimum efficient pattern after the pandemic. Our findings show that the highest improvement is found in the market efficiency of orange juice. Furthermore, the behavior of these agriculture commodities shifted from a persistent to an antipersistent behavior after the pandemic. The information given by the detection of multifractality can be used to support investment and policy-making decisions.
- Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and ThreatsPublication . Aslam, Faheem; Ferreira, Paulo; Ali, Haider; Ercília José, AnaSince the industrial revolution, the geopolitics of energy has been a driver of global prosperity and security, and determines the survival of life on our planet. This study examines the nonlinear structure and multifractal behavior of the cross-correlation between geopolitical risk and energy markets (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, natural gas and heating oil), using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis reveals different associations of the indices of overall geopolitical risk, geopolitical acts, and geopolitical threats against the four energy products. Based on daily data ranging from 1 January 1985 to 30 August 2021, the findings confirm the presence of nonlinear dependencies, suggesting that geopolitical risk and energy markets are interlinked. Furthermore, significant multifractal characteristics are found and the degree of multifractality is stronger between the overall geopolitical risk and WTI while the lowest degree of multifractality is with Brent. Overall, for the WTI and heating-oil markets, the influence of geopolitical threats is more pronounced rather than their fulfilment. Contrarily, the Brent and natural gas are more correlated to geopolitical acts. Energy products exhibit heterogeneous persistence levels of cross-correlation with all the indicators of geopolitical risk, being more persistent in the case of small fluctuations compared to large fluctuations.