Optimizing short-term water demand forecasting: a comparative approach within the battle of water demand forecasting

Ferreira, Bruno; Barreira, Raquel; Caetano, João; Quarta, Maria Grazia; Carriço, Nelson

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/51258

Use this identifier to reference this record.

Name:	Description:	Size:	Format:
CCWI_2024_Hydrocast.pdf		423.66 KB	Adobe PDF	Download

Send Feedback

Authors

Abstract(s)

The current paper presents a forecasting methodology for short-term water demand forecasting in the context of the Battle of Water Demand Forecasting. The methodology considers five distinct forecasting techniques, which are compared in terms of their forecasting ability for a preceding period, typically spanning a day or a week. The best-performing model is identified through error assessment between model predictions and actual measurements. This model is finally used to estimate the values for the forecasting horizon. This methodology directly considers the importance of tailoring the model to the specific case study and objectives. However, it is computationally intensive and relies on the fact that there will be not much variance between the preceding period and forecasting horizon results.

Description

Trabalho apresentado em 3rd International Joint Conference on Water Distribution Systems Analysis & Computing and Control for the Water Industry (WDSA/CCWI), 1 a 4 de julho de 2024, Ferrara, Itália