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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The main purpose of this paper is to verify the stability of a productive process in the presence of the effects of
autocorrelation and volatility, in order to capture these characteristics by a joint forecast model which produces
residuals that are evaluated by a control chart based on variable control limits. The methodology employed will
be the joint estimation of the residuals by ARIMA – ARCH models and the conditional standard deviation from
residuals to establish the chart control limits. The joint AR (1)-ARCH (1) model shows that an appropriate
forecasting model brings a great contribution to the performance of residual control charts in monitoring the
stability of industrial variables using just one chart to monitor mean and variance together.