Repository logo
 
Publication

Predictive Modeling of Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation Using X-12 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method

2023-06-04Journal article Open access
Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorBamanga, Muhammad Ardo
dc.contributor.authorAdams, Samuel Olorunfemi
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-20T16:21:49Z
dc.date.available2023-06-20T16:21:49Z
dc.date.issued2023-06-04
dc.description.abstractIn Nigeria, the average monthly quantity of currency in circulation (CIC) has increased by 269 billion nairas, reaching 2.13 trillion as of 2019 and 2.41 trillion as of 2020. The current value of currency in circulation is expected to be 2.88 trillion naira. The economy of Nigeria is impacted by the seasonal fluctuations in its currency, and it is unavoidable that the economy would need to be adjusted. The purpose of this study was to adjust the seasonal effect of eight days to Easter and Muslim holidays on CIC, model and predict the CIC in Nigeria using the United State Census Bureau's X-12 ARIMA Seasonal adjustment software. The data utilized in the study was the monthly amount of money in circulation that was taken from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Bulletin between January 2012 and March 2022. Natural logarithm was used to standardize the data, and series seasonality was removed using seasonal differencing. Based on these data, it is clear that X-12-ARIMA (2 1 1)(0 1 1) is the most accurate forecasting approach for Nigeria's CIC. The money in circulation in Nigeria from April 2022 through December 2022 will rise at a positive rate of 2.8% growth rate each month, with a predicted monthly mean CIC of 3.40 trillion by the end of the year 2022, according to this method's predictions. This is the first study on modeling and forecast of CIC in Nigeria that have utilize the United State Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA software, the findings can be extrapolated to the coming year, Nigerians may want to get ready for an increase in the amount of money in circulation during this time.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBamanga, M. A., and Adams, S. O. (2022). Predictive Modeling of Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation Using X-12 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method. Dutch Journal of Finance and Management, 5(1), 21473. https://doi.org/10.55267/djfm/13340pt_PT
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.55267/djfm/13340pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2542-4750
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/45247
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherIADITI Editionspt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.djfm-journal.com/article/predictive-modeling-of-nigerias-currency-in-circulation-using-x-12-autoregressive-integrated-moving-13340pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectCBNpt_PT
dc.subjectCurrency in circulationpt_PT
dc.subjectMoney Supplypt_PT
dc.subjectSeasonalitypt_PT
dc.subjectSeasonal Adjustmentpt_PT
dc.subjectX-12 ARIMApt_PT
dc.titlePredictive Modeling of Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation Using X-12 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Methodpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.conferencePlacePortugalpt_PT
oaire.citation.issue1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleDutch Journal of Finance and Managementpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume5pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
predictive-modeling-of-nigerias-currency-in-circulation-using-x-12-autoregressive-integrated-moving-13340.pdf
Size:
964.66 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.85 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

IADITI - Dutch Journal of Finance and Management