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Modelling past, present and future Ecosystem Services supply in a protected floodplain under land use and climate changes

2019-07-01Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorGaglio, M.
dc.contributor.authorAschonitis, V.
dc.contributor.authorPieretti, L.
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Luis
dc.contributor.authorGissi, E.
dc.contributor.authorCastaldelli, G.
dc.contributor.authorFano, E.A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-17T15:20:06Z
dc.date.available2021-09-17T15:20:06Z
dc.date.issued2019-07-01
dc.date.updated2021-09-17T12:21:25Z
dc.description.abstractThe understanding of protection initiatives’ effects on the delivery of Ecosystem Services (ESs) is of paramount importance to attain sustainable management in Protected Areas (PAs). Protected floodplains provide important ESs to local populations such as water flow regulation and climate regulation through carbon storage. This study investigates the effects of biodiversity protection initiatives (i.e. declaration of Protected Areas – PAs) and the related spatio-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem services (ESs) in the Nature Reserve of Paul do Boquilobo – NRPB (Central Portugal). Special focus was made on climate mitigation (i.e. carbon storage and sequestration) and water-related (flood mitigation, water regulation and supply) ESs. The analysis was performed using InVEST model. Three dates of past LULC conditions were considered in the analysis (1967, 1990 and 2015). Moreover, two future alternative LULC scenarios for 2050 were designed (a “Business”- BUS and a “Naturalization”- NAT scenario). The BUS scenario considers a LULC distribution towards high productive agricultural systems, considering only a restricted central core of natural areas, while the NAT scenario considers full coverage of natural areas. The two future extreme LULC scenarios were analyzed considering both no climate change and climate change effects on water-related services based on the pessimistic rcp8.5 climatic scenario. The results showed that PA declaration of NRPB after 1980 increased carbon storage-sequestration and flood mitigation (higher water storage, lower recharge and runoff). The analysis of future LULC scenarios demonstrated that the complete renaturing in combination with climate change (reduction of precipitation, increase of temperature) may lead to severe reduction of recharge and runoff. These results indicate that conflicts may appear between specific water regulation services by the application of PA initiatives in places where groundwater resources are limited or minimum ecological flows in surface waters are difficult to be preserved.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.04.019pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0304-3800
dc.identifier.slugcv-prod-1362711
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/37515
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304380019301644pt_PT
dc.subjectprotected areaspt_PT
dc.subjectecosystem services trade-offspt_PT
dc.subjectInVEST modelpt_PT
dc.subjectCarbon storagept_PT
dc.subjectWater flow regulationpt_PT
dc.titleModelling past, present and future Ecosystem Services supply in a protected floodplain under land use and climate changespt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage34pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage23pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleEcological Modellingpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume403pt_PT
person.familyNameSantos
person.givenNameLuis
person.identifier.ciencia-id031C-78F9-EC97
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1006-4131
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57197801607
rcaap.cv.cienciaid031C-78F9-EC97 | Luís Filipe Neves Carreira dos Santos
rcaap.rightsclosedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationbc5b2890-a4c5-4dd7-a8fd-d6b8282e806c
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverybc5b2890-a4c5-4dd7-a8fd-d6b8282e806c

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