IPT - CGeo - Artigos em Revistas Científicas
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Browsing IPT - CGeo - Artigos em Revistas Científicas by Subject "fire hazard"
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- MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire PreventionPublication . Santos, Luis; Vasco Lopes; Baptista, CecíliaCountries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climate-change reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design.
- Modernized Forest Fire Risk Assessment Model Based on the Case Study of three Portuguese Municipalities Frequently Affected by Forest FiresPublication . Santos, Luis; Lopes, Vasco; Baptista, CecíliaThe number of forest fires ignitions has decreased worldwide, thus observing increased levels of intensity and destruction, endangering urban areas and causing material damages and deaths (Portugal, 2017). Forest fire hazard mapping supported by the surveillance strategy targeted at very susceptible areas with high losses potential are the common tools of fire prevention. Each municipality creates its own Forest Fire Hazard Map, and so it is observed that along the administrative boundaries, discrepancies occur, even when identical types of land use are in place. The evolution of geographic information systems technology sustained by the open-source satellite imagery, along with the innovative Habitat Risk Assessment model of the InVEST software, allowed the creation of an easily applicable trans-administrative boundary fire hazard map, with frequent update capabilities and fully open source. This work considered three municipalities (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) that annually observe various forest fire occurrences. Results enabled the creation of a homogeneous Forest Fire Risk Map, using landuse, slope, road access network, fire ignitions’ history, visualization basins, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as variables. All variables correlate with each other using different weights, in which the different classes of land use are considered as habitats and the remaining variables as fire hazard stressors. The results produce a coherent monthly updated Risk Map, which is an alternative to many risk assessment systems used worldwide.