Browsing by Author "Adams, Samuel Olorunfemi"
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- Analysing the Trend and Variability in Corruption Perception: A Study of Sub-Sahara African Countries from 2012-2020Publication . Paul, Chima; Adams, Samuel OlorunfemiThis study examines trends and variability in the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) across 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) nation using cross-sectional data from 2012 to 2020 from Transparency International. Based on expert polls, the CPI rates public sector corruption from 0 (high corruption) to 100 (low corruption). Analysis was conducted using STATA 15 and included descriptive statistics, data visualization, correlation matrices, and one-way ANOVA. The findings show a steady yearly growth in the CPI, with major anti-corruption advancements in Botswana, Rwanda, Namibia, and Senegal. While the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and South Sudan continued to struggle with corruption, Niger, Gabon, Mali, and Togo demonstrated only little progress. The average CPI decreased somewhat from 32.9 in 2012 to 32.2 in 2020, indicating a minor regional impact, notwithstanding individual country efforts. ANOVA results showed no significant variations in corruption levels over time (F = 0.031, P = 0.987), but strong correlations (P < 0.01) suggest persistent CPI trends. These results highlight the necessity of focused policy initiatives and long-term governance reforms to solve persistent corruption problems in SSA. The study concludes that, in spite of evidence of relative effectiveness in governance and anti-corruption initiatives countries like Botswana, Rwanda, Namibia, and Senegal stand out as the top nations with the lowest perceived levels of corruption.
- Predictive Modeling of Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation Using X-12 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average MethodPublication . Bamanga, Muhammad Ardo; Adams, Samuel OlorunfemiIn Nigeria, the average monthly quantity of currency in circulation (CIC) has increased by 269 billion nairas, reaching 2.13 trillion as of 2019 and 2.41 trillion as of 2020. The current value of currency in circulation is expected to be 2.88 trillion naira. The economy of Nigeria is impacted by the seasonal fluctuations in its currency, and it is unavoidable that the economy would need to be adjusted. The purpose of this study was to adjust the seasonal effect of eight days to Easter and Muslim holidays on CIC, model and predict the CIC in Nigeria using the United State Census Bureau's X-12 ARIMA Seasonal adjustment software. The data utilized in the study was the monthly amount of money in circulation that was taken from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Bulletin between January 2012 and March 2022. Natural logarithm was used to standardize the data, and series seasonality was removed using seasonal differencing. Based on these data, it is clear that X-12-ARIMA (2 1 1)(0 1 1) is the most accurate forecasting approach for Nigeria's CIC. The money in circulation in Nigeria from April 2022 through December 2022 will rise at a positive rate of 2.8% growth rate each month, with a predicted monthly mean CIC of 3.40 trillion by the end of the year 2022, according to this method's predictions. This is the first study on modeling and forecast of CIC in Nigeria that have utilize the United State Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA software, the findings can be extrapolated to the coming year, Nigerians may want to get ready for an increase in the amount of money in circulation during this time.