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IUM - Doutoramento em Ciências Militares

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http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/50167

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Percorrer IUM - Doutoramento em Ciências Militares por autor "Bartolomeu, José Paulo Silva"

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  • Competitive Defense: shaping the future
    Publication . Bartolomeu, José Paulo Silva; Água, Pedro Borda de; Barroso, Luís Machado
    This thesis examines how modern defence organisations can sustain strategic advantage in an era of enduring uncertainty by developing a practicable concept and operational framework of competitive defence. The research problem identifies three interlinked challenges: (1) unresolvable uncertainty in the strategic environment, (2) structural and institutional barriers that fragment planning and procurement, and (3) behavioural dysfunctions—ambition, cognitive bias, rent-seeking, and corruption—that distort decision-making. The study pursued three specific objectives: to design adaptive frameworks for planning under uncertainty; to propose institutional reforms that reduce fragmentation and strengthen interoperability; and to develop measures to mitigate behavioural and governance risks. The study used an abductive, realist-informed, multi-method qualitative design. Documentary analysis, a process-tracing analysis of NATO’s adaptation (2014–2025), and structured comparative case studies (Belgium, Canada, Austria, Ukraine) were conducted, with triangulation employed to validate findings. The research demonstrates that uncertainty is structural rather than episodic; adaptive planning tools—including scenario libraries, red-teaming, horizon scanning—proved indispensable for managing complexity. It further finds that institutional reforms must be complemented by behavioural measures, and that a persistent implementation gap exists between foresight capabilities and downstream acquisition agility. The thesis sustains that competitive defence is best conceptualised as a seven-domain, dual-track framework (structural + behavioural), that is modular, audit-anchored and operationally actionable, however requires phased implementation, independent verification, and broader empirical testing beyond Euro-Atlantic cases. Important limitations include the focus on Western cases and reliance on open or documentary sources. The study therefore recommends wider geographic validation and primary data collection (Subject Matter Experts interviews) to strengthen external validity.
    2026-04-22Tese de doutoramento Acesso aberto Ver mais